So many things are happening in the various political parties and the tackles and momentum are increasing daily; those challenges of party leadership and positioning for the emergence of candidates. The APC, PDP, SDP, AD, ACCORD are presently the major political parties in Oyo State. The Alliance for Democracy seems to have displaced the Labour Party in the first 5 political parties in Oyo State.
APC: Gov Ajimobi holds the ace in Oyo state APC but if the appointment of the Federal boards is anything to go bye, then he holds the ace in Oyo State while someone else holds it in Abuja. The much delayed local government election in Oyo State is slated for May 12, 2019 but the major opposition party is withdrawing from it, due to credibility issues. In Oyo state, the APC is fractured along the 3 lines of SENACO, LAMISTS and the BAS (Adebayo Shittu) factions. However, the Prof Akande group has been romancing all the groups and that's why we are not treating him as a separate group, though he is a powerful force in Oyo State APC. All these groups are not going to agree on candidates for the governorship and the time bomb might go off just before the national convention is over. Definitely, there will be parallel congresses in the state but can the crises management skills of the governor navigate through to a safe harbour? Also of important consideration is the fact that non of the serving Senators in Oyo State will make the list of candidates for second term. The Governor has declared the intention to run for Senate in the Oyo South district, Sen Monsurat Sumonu of Oyo central is not in the good books of the Governor. Chief Alao Akala will probably display Sen Buhari from the Oyo North district, though he has declared for the governorship. The APC implosion is imminent but will they survive it?
PDP: the overall leader of the PDP in Oyo state, High Chief Ladoja has served the party his withdrawal notice and there are speculations of the romance with Alliance for Democracy in Oyo State. Sen Ladoja claims "impunity" is the reason for his departure but we all know the word impunity has been redefined to mean anything that doesn't favour the complainant. The Seyi Makinde camp, as it is now called has been making reconciliatory comments and plea but the declaration of departure is due for today, Wednesday 18, 2019. Indications from the OmiTitun camp suggests that there will be swift adjustment to the departure as soon as the declaration is made; they will move to neutralize the effects and chart a victory course immediately. One thing that will work for PDP is the fact that the implosion came early; about 9 months to the general elections. Closeness to election before implosion and decamping always have adverse effects on the political parties. Parties apart, the aspirant of PDP; Engr Seyi Makinde is the most favoured opposition figure to unseat the APC in Oyo State and his ever increasing public profile in Oyo State would likely neutralise the moral burden the national party is battling with.
AD: This party was rejuvenated when the opposition parties came together to return to PDP late last year; it was part of the parties who shared posts in the wards, local governments and state executive. Though the stalwarts of the party came out to denounce any merging with PDP in Oyo state but what is done is done. However, with the presence of Hon Babs Oduyoye, Hon Onigbinde and Baba Michael Koleoso in the party, the party stands a very good change of full recovery in the state. With the rumoured decamping of Ladoja and his followers to AD, no doubt the party will come close to PDP in relevance at the state level though we don't know about the structures across the wards in the state. The profile and goodwill of the candidate that emerges for the governorship will go a long way in projecting the party further.
SDP: the favoured party for the third force and the party in which Engr Seyi Makinde contested for 2015 gubernatorial election is warming up in Oyo State. Though their activities since the departure of their former candidate have been very low buy the merging of a group from the PDP at the national with the party promises to revive their activities nationwide. The national intervention movement NIM and the Obasanjo third force are pitching their tent with the SDP too. Definitely, the SDP will become a third force but it is too early to determine how powerful this third force will be in Oyo State.
ACCORD: This is the party Chief Ladoja left to return to PDP late last year. Though the likes of Hon Ajaja stayed back in the party and have since adjusted to the exit of the Ibadan high Chief and his followers. There are jingles and adverts to announce the party activities; obviously to make the public aware of the continued existence of the party in the state. Though this party was popularised by Chief Ladoja nationally, it's the profile and goodwill the candidate has with the public that will determine it's performance at the elections
As at this morning, the contest is strictly between whoever emerges in APC as candidate versus Engr Seyi Makinde of PDP because the coast seems so clear for him as the PDP candidate now. How early the candidates emerge in the other parties will go a long way in brightening their chances too. There is suspicion in some quarters that Chief Ladoja still want to contest but we can tell the public categorically that he made his intention not to contest public early in the year.
Who succeeds Gov Ajimobi in 2019 is an open race but the parties are in precarious state as at this morning. However, by the end of this month of April, the picture shall be clearer and we hope aspirants for other offices will be more noticeable.
Anyhow, Agodi government House is vacant prior to 2019.
Adeniyi Rotimi Johnson (Ojasope)
No comments:
Post a Comment